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Carlsen Says Caruana or Ding Are Likely To Win the Candidates

The 2022 Candidates Tournament started today with eight elite players fighting for their chance to face Magnus Carlsen for the World Title. In a blog post published right before the start of the tournament Magnus Carlsen gave a carefully-worded prediction on the event’s outcome.

Magnus Carlsen, Photo: World Chess

“I am always looking forward to the Candidates, both in terms of sporting excitement and also for the way opening theory is always advanced by these exceptional tournaments.” Carlsen stated, adding his view on the players.

“In terms of chances to win the whole thing, I would divide the players into three tiers.
Tier one: the favorites. In this tier, I would put Caruana and Ding. To me, they are the best and most consistent players on the field, and I would bet on one of the two wins against the field.

Tier two: the dark horses. Firouzja and Nepomniachtchi belong here. Neither of them has the consistency to be in the top tier, but they both have a ceiling that gives them a smaller, but still quite realistic chance of winning.

Tier three: the rest. I see a slight chance Rapport could make it if everything works out for him, but it feels very unlikely that he will survive seven black games against such opposition, even if he wins a few. Nakamura will probably have a decent event, but I don’t see him winning enough games to have a real chance. Duda and Radjabov I just don’t think have any shot.”

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