Nepo Names His Tips For The 2026 Candidates As The Countdown Begins

If anyone understands the psychological grind of FIDE's all-important Candidates tournament, it is GM Ian Nepomniachtchi.

With the 2026 edition now just two months away, the two-time winner and former World Championship challenger, has shared his predictions for this year's highly-anticipated title eliminator.

In a fascinating interview with the chess podcaster CM Greg Mustreader, "Nepo" offered up a candid tier list of the eight-player field based on experience, form, and psychological resilience.

It makes for a great rundown of what we can expect—and who can argue with Nepo?

The Candidates is huge, winning it is like being cleared to leave Base Camp before Everest. Only the true summit is left: becoming World Champion.

The 2026 event will be held from March 29 to April 16 at the Cap St Georges Hotel & Resort in Cyprus, where the winner will earn the right to challenge for the World Chess Championship.

Here's what the man who's been there before had to say:

Tier A: The Clear Favourites

At the top of Nepomniachtchi’s list are two GMs Fabiano Caruana and Praggnanandhaa R, whom he considers the two most likely winners.

“I think I would say there are two main favorites,” Nepomniachtchi said. “They are Praggnanandhaa and Caruana.”

Caruana, who secured his place early via the 2024 FIDE Circuit, was praised for his professionalism and long-term consistency. Nepomniachtchi revealed that he has spoken privately with the American grandmaster and believes Caruana is fully committed to another championship push.

“He says, ‘There is definitely one more cycle when I will try to do my best,’” Nepo explained. “And it is very noticeable.”

However, Nepomniachtchi also pointed to a familiar danger for Caruana—burning out at the decisive moment.

“The only problem is that he can burn out,” he said. “It obviously happened to him in Madrid [at the 2022 Candidates].”

Praggnanandhaa earned equal billing thanks to his versatility and preparation.

“He plays very well in general,” Nepomniachtchi said. “He is quite versatile, he has a large choice of openings. I think he will have a good team.”

Tier B: Strong, but Not Quite Favourites

Next come GMs Wei Yi, of China, the American Hikaru Nakamura, and Anish Giri—players Nepomniachtchi expects to be dangerous but not necessarily dominant.

Wei Yi drew praise for his balance between solidity and creativity.

“He loses very little with Black, and he is quite creative with White,” Nepomniachtchi said. “He is not afraid of forgotten lines.”

Nakamura’s case was more complicated. Despite being the highest-rated player in the field, Nepomniachtchi expressed uncertainty about his form due to a lack of recent classical chess.

“I just can’t say anything—I don’t understand what shape he will be in,” Nepo admitted. “A person without chess practice, who plays only on the internet… it feels a bit different.”

Even so, Nepomniachtchi acknowledged Nakamura’s ability to produce long winning streaks—something that can be decisive in the Candidates—while stopping short of calling him a favourite.

Giri, meanwhile, was praised for his experience and mental toughness.

“You should not underestimate how well he can pull himself together,” Nepomniachtchi said. “He is an immensely experienced chess player.”

Giri, the Dutch number-one, is busy this week playing at the Tata Steel Masters super tournament in Wijk aan Zee in the Netherlands.

He is not having his best tournament right now: after Round 10, the 31-year-old was on 4.5/10. But it's possible he's treating Tata as a warm-up.

Tier C: The Dark Horses

Nepomniachtchi placed his fellow Russian GM Andrey Esipenko and 2025 World Cup winner GM Javokhir Sindarov in Tier C—players capable of causing damage if conditions break their way.

Of Esipenko, he noted: “At his peak he is close to other tournament participants,” while emphasising that this will be his first Candidates appearance.

Sindarov was described as highly talented but still short on top-level experience.

“He is a very good chess player, but he is rather young,” Nepomniachtchi said. “I would not treat him as a favourite.”

Tier D: The Outsider

At the bottom of the list, perhaps harshly given his current form, is GM Matthias Bluebaum, whom Nepomniachtchi does not expect to challenge for first place—though he stressed that survival, not collapse, is the more likely outcome.

“I don’t think he’ll shine,” Nepo said, “but I also don’t think he’ll crash and burn.”

Bluebaum is another currently playing at Tata Steel. On Wednesday the German crossed 2700 and moved to second place after a crushing win over Giri.

The game, see below, was a stunner:

Nepomniachtchi warned that treating the Candidates as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity can be dangerous.

“If he just plays chess calmly, it will affect the result much better,” he said, adding that Bluebaum could still punish opponents who underestimate him.

A Tournament Like No Other

As the start date approaches in Cyprus, Nepomniachtchi repeatedly emphasised that the Candidates is as much a psychological battle as a chess one.

“Almost always, almost everyone in this tournament underperforms,” he said. “The tension will eat you up anyway.”

With just weeks remaining until the first move is played at the Cap St Georges Hotel & Resort, Nepomniachtchi’s assessment offers a revealing glimpse into who he believes is best equipped to survive the most brutal test in chess.

He is, after all, the expert and we can't wait to see if he's right.