No candidate has formally declared. Under FIDE Electoral Rules Art.\u00a021.5, candidacy papers must reach FIDE by 6pm CET, two months before the Samarkand Congress. All probabilities reflect intelligence signals only.

'; /* Candidate metric cards \u2014 white on dark, Perplexity style */ var _gc=window.innerWidth<480?'1fr':window.innerWidth<720?'1fr 1fr':'repeat(3,1fr)'; h+='

'; for(var i=0;i'; /* header: name + badge */ h+='

'; h+='

'+c.full+'

'; h+='

'+c.sub+'

'; if(c.tw){ h+=''; h+=''; h+='@'+c.tw+''; } h+='

'; h+=''+c.badge+''; h+='

'; /* big number */ h+='Win probability'; h+='

'; h+='

'+c.pct+'^%

'; h+=''+c.delta+''; h+='

'; h+='

'; /* stat boxes */ h+='

'; h+='

Federations

'+c.feds+'

'; h+='

Momentum

'+c.momentum+'

'; h+='

'; } h+=''; /* Field/Other as a simple footnote row, not a grid card */ h+='

'; h+='Field / other undeclared candidates'; h+='~5% residual probability'; h+='

'; /* Field intel ghost cards */ if(S.intel&&S.intel.length) h+=renderFieldIntelCards(S.intel); /* Analysis */ h+='

Three-way race forming.

'; h+='

US sanctions on Kirsan Ilyumzhinov were lifted by Trump executive order in June 2025, removing the key legal obstacle to his return. He has since pivoted heavily to Africa \u2014 the 54-federation swing bloc \u2014 leveraging his Chess in Schools legacy from 23 years as FIDE president. If he converts even half of Africa\u2019s undecided, the race becomes genuinely competitive. New names entering the field \u2014 Shirov and Turlov among them \u2014 are eroding Kirsan\u2019s probability. His Africa network remains intact, but a wider field means fewer undecided federations gravitate to him by default.

'; var _tot=T.dv+T.ki+T.ro+(T.rpt||0); if(_tot>0){ h+='

'; h+='

'; h+='Community voice \u00b7 '+_tot+' responses'; h+='Vote \u203a'; h+='

'; var _rs=[{k:"dv",n:"Dvorkovich",c:"#CB912F"},{k:"ki",n:"Kirsan",c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.7)"},{k:"ro",n:"Rosenstein",c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.45)"},{k:"rpt",n:"Review",c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.2)"}]; for(var _i=0;_i<_rs.length;_i++){var _r=_rs[_i];var _p=Math.round((T[_r.k]||0)/_tot*100); h+='

'+_r.n+'

'+_p+'%

'; } h+='

'; } h+='Ask anything about this race ›'; /* Share button \u2014 own row, prominent */ h+='

' +'' +'

'; /* Chess Politics news feed */ var _news=S.news||[]; h+='

'; if(_news.length>0){ h+='

'; h+='

Chess Politics

'; for(var ni=0;ni<_news.length;ni++){ var na=_news[ni]; var nd=na.publishedAt?new Date(na.publishedAt):null; var mn=["Jan","Feb","Mar","Apr","May","Jun","Jul","Aug","Sep","Oct","Nov","Dec"]; var ndstr=nd?(nd.getDate()+" "+mn[nd.getMonth()]+" "+nd.getFullYear()):""; var nurl="https://worldchess.com/news/"+na.slug; h+=''; h+='

'; if(na.description) h+='

'+na.description+'

'; h+=''; } h+='All Chess Politics stories \u2192'; h+='

'; } return h; } /* \u2550\u2550 COALITIONS \u2550\u2550 */ function renderCoalitions(){ /* master bar */ var h='

'; var ms=[{w:"44.6%",c:"#CB912F",tc:"#37352F",n:"87"},{w:"26.7%",c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.8)",tc:"#37352F",n:"52"}, {w:"14.4%",c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.45)",tc:"rgba(0,0,0,0.7)",n:"28"},{w:"14.4%",c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.1)",tc:"rgba(55,53,47,0.5)",n:"28"}]; for(var mi=0;mi'+m.n+'

'; } h+='

'; h+='

'; var leg=[{c:"#CB912F",t:"Dvorkovich 87"},{c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.8)",t:"Kirsan 52"},{c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.45)",t:"Reform 28"},{c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.1)",t:"Undecided 28"}]; for(var li=0;li'+leg[li].t+''; h+='

'; h+='

Majority required: 98. No candidate currently holds a majority.

'; var _w=window.innerWidth;var _cols=_w<480?'1fr':_w<720?'1fr 1fr':'repeat(3,1fr)';h+='

'; for(var ci=0;ci'; h+='

'+co.sub+' · '+co.pct+'

'; h+='

'+co.count+'

'; h+='

federations

'; h+='

'+co.desc+'

'; h+='

Strength

'+co.strength+'

'; h+='

Risk

'+co.risk+'

'; h+='

'; } h+=''; return h; } /* \u2550\u2550 FEDERATIONS \u2550\u2550 */ function renderFederations(){ var h='Regional alignment · 195 federations'; for(var ri=0;ri'; h+=''+rg.total+' feds'; h+=''; h+='

'; for(var si=0;si'+sg.n+'

'; } h+=''; h+='

'+rg.note+'

'; h+=''; } h+='

'; h+='

'; var fleg=[{c:"#CB912F",t:"Dvorkovich"},{c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.65)",t:"Makropoulos / Reform"},{c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.12)",t:"Absent"}]; for(var fl=0;fl'+fleg[fl].t+''; h+='

'; for(var cfi=0;cfi'; h+='

'; for(var fi2=0;fi2

'; } h+=''; } h+='

Assumptions \u2014 FIDE does not publish individual federation votes. 2018 result (Dvorkovich 103 \u2013 Makropoulos 78) reconstructed from public records and journalism.

'; return h; } /* \u2550\u2550 PROJECTIONS \u2550\u2550 */ function renderProjections(){ var h='Win probability trajectory · Three scenarios'; h+='

'; h+='

'; h+='Dvorkovich'; h+='Kirsan'; h+='Rosenstein'; h+='

'; h+='

'; var scens=[ {lbl:"Base case \u00b7 55%",txt:"Kirsan decides against running. Dvorkovich wins a third term. African bloc splits. Reform bloc has no candidate."}, {lbl:"Kirsan declares \u00b7 35%",txt:"Race becomes genuinely competitive. Africa is the battlefield. Neither candidate has a clear majority path."}, {lbl:"Dark horse \u00b7 10%",txt:"Reform bloc finds a candidate. Dvorkovich\u2019s lead collapses. Three-way race with no clear front-runner."}, {lbl:"Dvorkovich withdraws",txt:"If the incumbent does not run, Kirsan becomes the strong favourite but Rosenstein (Germany-based) gains significantly as a reform-aligned alternative. A genuine two-horse race."} ]; for(var si=0;si'; h+='

'+sc.txt+'

'; h+='

'; } h+=''; return h; } /* \u2550\u2550 SIDEBAR \u2550\u2550 */ function renderSide(){ /* \u2500\u2500 Signals: real editorial assessments, no fake market numbers \u2500\u2500 */ var now=new Date(); var ed=new Date(D.electionDate); var daysLeft=Math.ceil((ed-now)/86400000); var signals=[ {label:"Status",val:"Pre-declaration",sub:"No candidate has filed"}, {label:"Filed candidates",val:"0",sub:"Deadline: Summer 2026"}, {label:"Days to deadline",val:"~"+Math.max(0,daysLeft-60),sub:"Approx. candidacy cutoff"}, {label:"Dvorkovich signal",val:"Strong",sub:"No challenger declared"}, {label:"Kirsan signal",val:"Testing",sub:"Active Africa outreach"}, {label:"Africa bloc",val:"Undecided",sub:"54 feds \u00b7 decisive swing"}, {label:"Nigeria bloc",val:"Uncommitted",sub:"12 feds \u00b7 both camps lobbying"} ]; var sigCols={ "Strong":"#448163","Testing":"#CB912F","Undecided":"rgba(55,53,47,0.6)", "Uncommitted":"rgba(55,53,47,0.6)","0":"#fff","Pre-declaration":"#fff" }; var h='

Signals

'; h+='

Editorial assessment \u00b7 No real market data

'; var sigIcons=["activity","person","clock","trending","activity","map","flag"]; for(var i=0;i'+ic+sg.label+''; h+='

'; h+='

'+sg.val+'

'; h+='

'+sg.sub+'

'; h+='

'; } h+='

'; h+='

Watchlist

'; var watches=[ {name:"Nigeria bloc",sub:"12 feds · uncommitted · Both camps lobbying",ic:"flag",col:"#CB912F"}, {name:"Kirsan Africa tour",sub:"Zambia, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Botswana",ic:"map",col:"rgba(55,53,47,0.6)"}, {name:"Reform candidate",sub:"28 feds without a candidate",ic:"alert",col:"rgba(55,53,47,0.5)"}, {name:"India alignment",sub:"Chess superpower · Presidential politics unclear",ic:"eye",col:"rgba(55,53,47,0.5)"} ]; for(var w=0;w'; h+='

'+ww.sub+'

'; } h+='

'; h+='

Key dates

'; var dates=[ {k:"Summer 2026",v:"Candidacy deadline",gold:true}, {k:"Sep\u2013Oct 2026",v:"Olympiad, Samarkand"}, {k:"During Congress",v:"Presidential vote"} ]; for(var d=0;d'+dt.k+''; h+=''+dt.v+''; } h+='

World Chess PLC · LSE: CHSS

'; h+='

Indicative · Apr 2026

'; return h; } function renderVoice(){ var T=S.tallies||TALLIES; var total=T.dv+T.ki+T.ro+T.report; if(!S.vstep||S.vstep===1){ var h='

Your voice

'; h+='

Choose who you support as the next FIDE President. Then generate a formal letter of support addressed to your federation president.

'; var tiles=[ {k:"dv", nm:"Arkady Dvorkovich", ro:"Incumbent President \u00b7 Russia", ds:"Third term. Institutional stability and commercial growth.", bg:"#FEF9EC"}, {k:"ki", nm:"Kirsan Ilyumzhinov", ro:"Former President 1995\u20132018", ds:"Return bid. 23-year network, Africa-focused campaign.", bg:"#EEF4FB"}, {k:"ro", nm:"Wadim Rosenstein", ro:"German \u00b7 Major chess organizer", ds:"Reform candidate. Governance and digital chess agenda.", bg:"#EEF6F1"}, {k:"rpt", nm:"Request candidate review", ro:"No candidate support", ds:"Ask FIDE Electoral Commission to scrutinise all candidates.", bg:"#F1F0EF"} ]; var _vg=root.offsetWidth>480?'1fr 1fr':'1fr'; h+='

'; for(var ti=0;ti'+ '

'+ '

'+init+'

'+ '

'+tl.nm+'

'+ '

'+tl.ro+'

'+ '

'+tl.ds+'

'+ '

'; } h+=''; if(S.vvote) h+=''; if(total>0){ h+='

'; h+='

Community \u00b7 '+total+' voices

'; var tr=[{k:"dv",n:"Dvorkovich",c:"#CB912F"},{k:"ki",n:"Kirsan",c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.7)"},{k:"ro",n:"Rosenstein",c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.45)"},{k:"rpt",n:"Review",c:"rgba(55,53,47,0.28)"}]; for(var ti2=0;ti2

'+p+'%

'; } h+=''; } return h; } if(S.vstep===2){ var cn={dv:"Arkady Dvorkovich",ki:"Kirsan Ilyumzhinov",ro:"Wadim Rosenstein",rpt:"an independent review"}[S.vvote]||""; var h2='

Write your letter

'; h2+='

Your letter of support for '+cn+' will be signed with your name and addressed to your federation president.

'; h2+='

Your full name

'; h2+='

Your federation

'; h2+='

Your email'; h2+='

Used to deliver your letter. Not shared with candidates.

'; h2+='

'+ 'Also send me World Chess updates and news about the FIDE election.

'; h2+='

'; return h2; } if(S.vstep===3){ var VTXT={ dv:"I am writing to express my support for Arkady Dvorkovich as FIDE President for the next term. His leadership has brought institutional stability, commercial partnerships, and a genuine expansion of chess globally. I urge my federation to cast its vote in his favour at the 2026 FIDE Congress in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.", ki:"I am writing to express my support for Kirsan Ilyumzhinov as FIDE President. His 23-year tenure transformed chess into a global sport. His experience, his relationships with federations across Africa and Asia, and his commitment to chess development make him the right leader for the next chapter of FIDE.", ro:"I am writing to express my support for Wadim Rosenstein as FIDE President. As a major German chess organizer, he represents a European reform voice that can unify federations around governance improvements and the digital future of chess, including online rating integration.", rpt:"I am writing to formally request that my federation raise the issue of candidate scrutiny at the 2026 FIDE Congress. I ask that all candidates\u2019 eligibility, financial history, and conduct be reviewed by the FIDE Electoral Commission before the vote." }; var now=new Date(); var mn=["January","February","March","April","May","June","July","August","September","October","November","December"]; var ds=now.getDate()+" "+mn[now.getMonth()]+" "+now.getFullYear(); var bt=VTXT[S.vvote]||""; var h3='

Your letter

'; h3+='

Review and send. It is addressed to the president of your federation.

'; h3+='

World Chess \u00b7 Player Voice

FIDE Election 2026

'; h3+='

'+ds+'

'; h3+='

Dear President of the '+S.vfed+',

'+bt+'

I ask that you register my position as you consider your federation\u2019s vote at the 2026 FIDE Congress in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

This letter was submitted through World Chess, the official FIDE gaming platform.

'; h3+='

'+S.vname+'

'+S.vfed+'

'+S.vemail+'

'; h3+='

'; var sub=encodeURIComponent("Letter of support: FIDE Election 2026"); var mb=encodeURIComponent("Dear Federation President,\n\n"+bt+"\n\nI ask that you register my position as you consider your federation's vote at the 2026 FIDE Congress.\n\nSincerely,\n"+S.vname+"\n"+S.vfed+"\n"+S.vemail); h3+='

'; h3+=''; h3+=''; h3+='Send by email'; h3+='

'; return h3; } return ''; } window.wfeVote=function(k){S.vvote=k;if(!S.vstep)S.vstep=1;render();}; window.wfeVNext=function(){if(!S.vvote)return;S.vstep=2;render();}; window.wfeVBack=function(){S.vstep=Math.max(1,(S.vstep||2)-1);render();}; window.wfeVGen=function(){ var n=document.getElementById("wfe-vname"),f=document.getElementById("wfe-vfed"),e=document.getElementById("wfe-vemail"),m=document.getElementById("wfe-vmkt"); if(!n||!f||!e)return; if(!n.value.trim()||!f.value.trim()||!e.value.trim()){alert("Please fill in all three fields.");return;} S.vname=n.value.trim();S.vfed=f.value.trim();S.vemail=e.value.trim();S.vmkt=m?m.checked:false; /* submit to Sanity */ submitVoteToSanity({ candidate:S.vvote, name:S.vname, federation:S.vfed, email:S.vemail, optIn:S.vmkt },function(err){ if(!err) loadTallies(function(t){if(t){S.tallies=t;}}); }); S.vstep=3;render(); }; window.wfeVCopy=function(){ var el=document.getElementById("wfe-ldoc");if(!el)return; if(navigator.clipboard){navigator.clipboard.writeText(el.innerText||el.textContent).then(function(){var ok=document.getElementById("wfe-cpok");if(ok){ok.style.display="block";setTimeout(function(){ok.style.display="none";},2500);}});} }; 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'; h+='

'+pillText+'

'; if(isIntel) h+='

Unverified

'; h+='

'; /* Content */ h+='

'; h+='

'+alert.headline+'

'; h+='

'+alert.subtext+'

'; /* Share button \u2014 motivating, inline, feels like forwarding intel */ h+=''; /* Ticker */ if(alert.ticker){ h+='

'; h+='Live'; h+='

'+alert.ticker+'

'; h+='

'; if(!document.getElementById('wfe-tick-style')){ var st=document.createElement('style'); st.id='wfe-tick-style'; st.textContent='@keyframes wfetick{from{transform:translateX(20%)}to{transform:translateX(-110%)}}'; document.head.appendChild(st); } } h+='

'; /* Probability shifts */ if(alert.probabilityShifts&&alert.probabilityShifts.length){ h+='

'; h+='

Probability shift

'; for(var pi=0;pi-1; var isDn=ps.delta&&ps.delta.indexOf('-')>-1; var dColor=isUp?'#448163':isDn?'#D44C47':'rgba(55,53,47,0.45)'; h+='

'; h+=''+ps.candidate+''; h+=''+ps.delta+''; h+='

'; } h+='

'; } /* Close */ h+=''; h+=''; h+=''; return h; } function renderFieldIntelCards(items){ if(!items||!items.length) return ''; var colorMap={ blue:{bg:'rgba(72,124,165,0.12)',text:'#487CA5'}, gold:{bg:'rgba(203,145,47,0.12)',text:'#CB912F'}, purple:{bg:'rgba(144,101,176,0.12)',text:'#9065B0'}, green:{bg:'rgba(68,129,99,0.12)',text:'#448163'} }; var h='

'; h+='

Field intelligence

'; h+='

Unverified \u00b7 Emerging signals

'; h+='

'; for(var i=0;i'+it.initials+'

'; h+='

'+it.name+'

'+it.role+'

'; h+='

'+it.status+'

'; h+=''; h+='

'+it.note+'

'; h+='

Confidence

'; for(var d=1;d<=5;d++) h+='

'; h+='

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