Isn't It Weird How The Big Chess Nations Aren't Doing Well At The World Cup
It's getting edgy at the $2 million FIDE World Cup in Goa. So many big names have bitten the dust that we just don't know where to look for a winner.
As we get to the business end, there is so much more at stake than the impressive prize pot and the prestige of being named World Cup winner.
The remaining players are simultaneously fighting tooth and nail to fill one of three spots left in the 2026 FIDE Candidates tournament, which will determine the challenger for the next World Championship match.
That has to be the first big priority for anyone left, and it adds an extra spice to this stage of the tournament. Go through now, and you could have it sewn up.
India’s number-two seed GM Arjun Erigaisi is undoubtedly now the favourite to win the whole event. He's the world number-six.
But Erigaisi has got arguably the toughest quarter-final against China's mercurial former super-prodigy GM Wei Yi. Their first game in the quarters on Monday has just ended in a draw within an hour and saw 99 per cent accuracy from both sides.
When that match finishes, one out of home nation India and the 21st century chess monolith China will have no GMs left. Who could have predicted that?
Of all the stars the U.S. has at its disposal, and 12 got on planes to compete in Goa, GM Sam Shankland is the last left standing.
Again, he's a great theoretician, but at 34 and, he admits, past his prime who could possibly have bet on Shankland?
And as for Germany, its stars have been lighting up the chess world recently. GM Vincent Keymer has stormed up the rankings in recent months, peaking at four, while GM Matthias Bluebaum shocked the world with his performance at the FIDE Grand Swiss, which booked him an unexpected place in the Candidates.
Both were on fire going into the event. But who's the German left in the tournament? GM Alexander Donchenko.
However, after Donchenko's first game loss to GM Nodirbek Yakubboev (not even the first Nodirbek we expected in the quarters), the German number-three now has it all to do to stay in the hunt. But anything could happen, we know that.
Meanwhile Russia, that proud traditional powerhouse of chess which dominated the game for decades, has GM Andrey Esipenko left as its lone representative. He's a destructive player who may go on and win it, but that's still a surprise.
In 2019, Russia fielded a record 28 grandmasters in the World Cup, and back then the tournament started with just 128 players, compared to 206 today. Times are different now.
Mexico is not a chess minnow by any means, but historically it hasn't been a top-tier nation. The Peru-born GM Jose Martinez, chiefly known for his online prowess in fast time controls, has a chance to go further than any Mexican in history.
He is also now knocking on the door of a Candidates place, which would have been unthinkable for him just months ago. Now it's a real possibility.
That leaves Uzbekistan, the only nation with two players remaining: GM Javokhir Sindarov and the aforementioned Yakubboev. Again, former World Rapid champion GM Nodirbek Abdusattorov was a hot tip to get this far pre-tournament, but instead it's his strong but less talked about countrymen who have done the business.
It all adds up to an astonishing situation for the Candidates. With three spots available from this tournament, it's now very possible, likely even, that the Candidates in Cyprus features three players in its the eight-man field rated below 2700 FIDE. Two will have been seeded below 16.
We're still expecting Erigaisi to go on and win it on home soil, continuing to paint the story of India's golden generation rising to dominate world events.
But are we in for one final big shock and the last real big gun left to be eliminated without even picking up a Candidates place? It can't happen, can it?