Gukesh vs Sindarov: Is the World Champion Really the Underdog?

World Champion GM Gukesh D has a problem.

His challenger, GM Javokhir Sindarov, is world number four, has won almost everything that matters this year and holds a commanding advantage in their head-to-head record.

Gukesh, meanwhile, has fallen to world number 26.

The 22-place gap between them is the largest in a World Championship match since the title was reunified in 2006.

With their $2.5 million match beginning in Geneva on November 24, an extraordinary question is emerging.

Is the defending champion actually the underdog?

A Tale Of Two Seasons

Sindarov's rise has been remarkable.

After winning the 2025 World Cup in Goa, the Uzbek finished second at January's Tata Steel Masters with an unbeaten 8.5/13.

Then came the Candidates in Cyprus, where he scored a record 6/7 in the first half and finished unbeaten on 10/14, winning six games and drawing eight.

At September's Olympiad, he scored 7/10 as Uzbekistan won gold on home soil.

And he ended October by winning the Clutch Chess Champions Showdown in Saint Louis, finishing ahead of GM Praggnanandhaa R and the two American big beasts playing on home soil, GM Fabiano Caruana and GM Hikaru Nakamura.

Gukesh's season has been considerably less convincing.

He managed 6.5/13 at Tata Steel, finished ninth at Prague and last at Norway Chess. July's Chennai Grand Masters was particularly painful: four draws, three defeats and no wins.

But September brought a revival.

Playing on India's fourth board at the Olympiad, Gukesh scored seven wins and three draws before losing his final game to GM Gleb Dudin.

Dudin was a relatively unknown player: a Hungarian psychology student at the University of Texas Rio Grande. But it was the last round, although the world title match will be much more gruelling. Overall, Gukesh's 8.5/11 was a good showing. It earned an individual silver medal, while India finished second behind Uzbekistan.

It was a reminder that the world champion's best chess has not disappeared.

Head-To-Head: Advantage Sindarov

A quick database check shows the challenger's advantage extends to their previous meetings. Sindarov beat Gukesh at the 2018 Moscow Open, when both were kids, and again at the 2022 Sharjah Masters.

Their most recent classical encounter, at Tata Steel in January, was drawn. That leaves Sindarov leading 2–0, with one draw.

Gukesh did beat him in rapid chess at May's Grand Chess Tour event in Warsaw, but Sindarov won both their blitz encounters there.

The statistics are difficult to ignore.

Carlsen And Nepomniachtchi Agree

Five-time world champion GM Magnus Carlsen has described Sindarov as a significant favourite.

His reasoning is revealing: Carlsen believes the Uzbek is more rounded as a player and makes more objective evaluations.

Two-time challenger GM Ian Nepomniachtchi has put the odds at roughly 65–35 in Sindarov's favour, pointing to Gukesh's decline in rating and results since his breakthrough in 2024.

Sindarov himself has been more cautious.

"If he plays his best chess, then we both have the same chances," he told Chess.com.

He rated the match "50-50", acknowledging that Gukesh already knows what it takes to compete for the world title.

And that may be the defending champion's greatest advantage.

In Singapore in 2024, Gukesh survived the pressure of a gruelling 14-game match against Ding Liren, eventually winning the title in the final game.

Sindarov triumphed in the Candidates earlier this year, which is normally considered a gruelling event. But to be truthful, he led from start to finish and he was on fire - it probably didn't feel as gruelling as it normally would have.

He has never faced anything comparable to a world title match, however.