GM Magnus Carlsen isn't changing his favourite. But he isn't writing Gukesh off either.
The world number-one, the guy who relinquished his classical crown to let others have a go, has again backed GM Javokhir Sindarov to beat the pride of India GM Gukesh D in November's big World Chess Championship match, saying that as things stand there is "no question" the Uzbek challenger should be favourite.
Carlsen is far from alone in his opinion.
But the former five-time champ also believes the match could turn very quickly—and says Gukesh has already demonstrated that his best chess is good enough.
"As it stands, there's no question that Sindarov is the favourite," Carlsen said during the Global Chess League in Bengaluru.
But he added: "Chess is a highly psychological game, so it probably won't take a lot to potentially place some doubts in Sindarov's mind and some confidence for Gukesh."
For Carlsen, the opening stages in Geneva could therefore be crucial.
"If Sindarov is ahead early on, it's probably very, very bad news for Gukesh," he said. "If Gukesh is ahead early on, he automatically becomes a significant favourite. That's how these matches work."
Carlsen has been firmly in the Sindarov camp since the Uzbek's dominant victory at the Candidates earlier this year.
Speaking in April, the five-time world champion said it was “impossible not to say Sindarov” when asked to pick a winner.
His reasoning then was particularly striking.
Carlsen said Gukesh had “very, very obvious weaknesses when it comes to his understanding”, while Sindarov was “a lot more well-rounded”.
Five months later, having now faced Sindarov himself at the Global Chess League, Carlsen appears no less impressed.
The pair drew their first meeting in Bengaluru after Sindarov put the world number-one under early pressure.
"Sindarov is very good,” Carlsen said afterwards. “He has a very, very good positional understanding."
He added that the 20-year-old was “very well rounded” and “doesn't have any obvious weaknesses".
That assessment will hardly make comfortable reading for Gukesh after a difficult period since becoming the youngest world champion in history.
But Carlsen believes there is another Gukesh to consider.
The Indian's extraordinary run through 2024 culminated in victory over Ding Liren in Singapore, and Carlsen says that version of Gukesh demonstrated a level capable of competing with anyone.
"He has shown previously in 2024 that when things click, he has the potential to play at an extremely high level," Carlsen said.
That is why Carlsen also thinks Gukesh should change the way he views Geneva.
Forget defending the title.
"I think the word defend is really not a good place to begin," Carlsen said.
Given how Gukesh has played over the last couple of years, he argued, the champion should approach the match as someone with “everything to gain” rather than something to protect.
“I don't think a lot of people believe that he will do it now,” Carlsen said. “But I think it is even more of an interesting challenge for him to try and get back to that."
For now, Sindarov remains Carlsen's pick.
But in a 14-game World Championship match, apparently even the favourite without obvious weaknesses can start having doubts.